Marianne Costa Avalone
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Reviewing an impact evaluation before acting on it

A vendor delivered an impact evaluation of an economic development program run with municipal governments. I was asked to validate it. The real job turned out to be different: showing leadership what the data could and could not support.

My role
Technical review and design of the alternative approach, in partnership with the public policy team
Methods
Comparison groups, similarity clustering, regression, scenario simulation
Audience
Executive leadership
Outcome
Informed the decision not to continue the evaluation contract

How the problem arrived

The request was simple: check an impact report produced by an outside consultancy before it was used. In practice, the underlying question was whether the organization could rely on those numbers to decide about the program and about the evaluation contract itself.

Reviewing the method, I found methodological and technical inconsistencies that undermined the conclusions.

The question worth answering

Pointing out flaws would only solve half the problem. Decision makers would be left with no reliable report and no alternative. So I replaced "is the report right?" with a different question: with the data we have, what can we say about the relationship between program participation and municipal economic indicators, and how confident can we be?

Workflow: from the vendor report to the leadership decisionVendor reportask: validate itMethod reviewinconsistenciesReframed questionwhat can we claim?Comparisonparticipants vs. notClusteringsimilar municipalitiesRegressionhours × indicatorsScenariosimulatorLeadershipdecisionreviewreframebuildtranslate and decide Workflow: from the vendor report to the leadership decisionVendor reportask: validate itMethod reviewinconsistenciesReframed questionwhat can we claim?Comparisonparticipants vs. notClusteringsimilar municipalitiesRegressionhours × indicatorsScenariosimulatorLeadershipdecision
The three analyses ran in parallel and fed the simulator. The blue boxes mark where the work changed direction: the method review and the reframed question.

Approach

We built the alternative analysis together with the team responsible for the program, who knew the operation and the municipalities.

  • Participating and non-participating municipalities compared, to have a reference for what would happen without the program.
  • Similarity clustering, to compare municipalities with each other and avoid mixing very different local economies.
  • Regressions between hours of program participation and economic indicators, to see whether more intensity was associated with different results.
  • A scenario simulator, so leadership could explore what the results implied without reading the models.

What happened

The work was presented to executive leadership and informed the decision not to continue the evaluation contract.

The result that stayed with me was a different one: making the problem clear to the people who had to decide. A correct technical critique, on its own, would not have changed anything.

Limits

  • The analyses are observational. They show associations between participation and indicators, not the program's causal effect, and were presented that way.
  • Aggregate municipal indicators respond to many things besides the program; clustering reduces that noise but does not remove it.
  • Ending a contract is not the same as net savings. Termination costs and conditions were outside this analysis.

What I take from it

A methodological critique only changes a decision when it comes with an alternative the decision maker can use.